Monday 18 May 2020

SnapShot in 2020 , 10 years later

Snapshot of where I am
1) sleep before 11:30 everyday
 i will stop Option trading by 10:45 and read a text intensive book , warm bath + milk

2) milestones for weight
Currently standing @ 80.8kg
going to achieve this by eating healthily R + white meat + 2 veg at regular intervals ( 4 - 5 hours)

Hope to lose weight at about 1 kg / month : 9 KG in 9 months so by Feb 2021
exercise 5 times a week
climb twice  a week
swim  once a week
long run ( 6km - 10 km)  once a week
short run + antagonist training once a week

3 Milestones for income :
Primary : study for one hour , work on problem for the rest of time.
Secondary : lock away 1.4k sgd per month
Tertiary : Try out making youtube videos for one year ( till 18th May 2021)

4 Make a video a week

5) love? found it

6) Been climbing since June 2018 :)

Covid19 is a weird period. Like a trial run for an actual high mortality pandemic

Thursday 1 February 2018

The end of Average


The age of average
1)The invention of the average
i)The mathematics of society
Quetelet ( born 1796 ) establish a social science by borrowing astronomy’s method of averages and applying it to people. It revolutionized the way society thought of the individual.

He analyzed a data set published in an Edinburgh medical journal . He thought  : If you averaged 1000 different soldiers , it would be a very close approximation of the one true soldier.

ii) the average man
He computed the average of every human attribute he could get data on. In doing so , he also invented the Quetelet Index - today known as the BMI - to identify the average health.

Governments adopted his social physics as a basis for understanding their citizens and crafting social policy.

His invention of the average man marked the beginning of the age of average. It represented the moment when the average became normal the individual became error , and stereotypes were validated with imprints of science.

iii) the eminent and the imbecile
Francis Galton was a mathematician whose family made a fortune in banking and gun manufacturing. The eminent are those who were far above average while the imbecile were far below average.

He carved mankind up into fourteen distinct classes from Imbecile to the “Mediocre” to “Eminent”. The human worth could be measured by how far a person was from average.

Two assumptions unconsciously shared by almost every member of society  1) Quetelet’s idea of average man and 2)Galton’s idea of rank Both relied on a comparison of the individual to group average.

2) How our world became standardized
In the 1880s , America was transitioning from an agrarian economy to an industrial one Frederick Winslow Taylor , chief engineer at Enterprise Hydraulic Works , contemplated the problems of the new era of factory production. There were runaway inflation , plunging wages and frequent financial panics. Turnover was high.

He thought that the way factories organized his workers was clumsy , inept and unscientific. He believed that he could systematically eliminate inefficiency from business by adopting the core precept of averagarianism , the idea that individuality did not matter. “In the past the man was first” “ in the future i) the system must be first.

Initially , companies hired the most talented employees and reorganised a company’s processes  according to what they believed would help them be most productive.

He thought businesses should hire the most talented employees and reorganised a company’s processes according to what they believed would help them be the most productive.

He thought businesses should hire Average man who fit the system.

He used his teacher’s method of standardizing homework to standardize any industrial process. He optimized a task’s speed , measured the average completion time then standardized the entire industrial process with no deviation.

There was always “one best way” to accomplish any given task.

ii) the birth of the manager
Someone who creates the standards that governed a business. All planning , control and decision making from the workers should be handed over to a new class of “planners” who would be responsible for overseeing the workers and determining the one best way to standardize an organisation’s process.

Business owners restructured their enterprises by creating departments and sub departments , each headed by a Taylorist manager , making the organisational chart.

Thinking and planning were cleanly separated from making and doing.

(iii) factories of education
The educational Taylorist declared that the new mission of education should be to prepare mass numbers of students to work in the new Talorized economy.

To organise and teach children to become workers who could perform industrial tasks in a “perfect way” , he remade the entire educational system.

Grouped student by age , rotated them through different classes , lasting a standardized period of time and have school bells emulate factory bells - to mentally prepare children

The curriculum planner created fixed , inviolable curriculum that dictated everything.

(iv) the gifted and the useless
Edward Thorndlike believed that instead  of Taylorist goal of education which was to provide every student with the same average education , schools should sort young people according to their ability so that educational resources could be allocated accordingly .

To help establish his desired system of student ranking , he created standardised test. He supported the use of grades as a convenient metric for ranking student’s overall talent.

(v) A world of type and rank
By forcing college applicants and job seekers to take standardized tests, nepotism and cronyism were reduced and students from less privileged backgrounds attained unprecedented access to opportunities to a better life.

Averagarism : society compels each of us to conform to certain narrow expectations in order to succeed.

“Be like everyone else , only better”

We are told there is one right way to get things done , and if we pursue an alternate course , we are often told that we are misguided , naive , or just plain wrong.

Excellence , too often , is not prioritized over conforming to the system.

3) Overthrowing the average.
i) the ergodic bait and switch
Ergodic theory : use information about a gap to draw conclusions about individual members of the group.

On two condition :  (frozen clones)
1) every member is identical (clones)
2) every member remains the same in the future  (frozen)

ii) the science of the individual
If you could use averages to evaluate , model and select individuals , what could you use ?

Averagarianism offered an efficient way to sift through large numbers of people.
1) It worked better than anything else that was available.
2) Concise statements that seem true because they appear to be based on forthright maths.
E.g. “she is smarter than average,” or “he was ranked second in his graduating class,” or “she is an introvert”

Human qualities cannot be reduced to a single score.

Statistics : a math of static values.
To accurately understand individuals , one needs dynamic systems - the math of changing , non linear dynamic values ( CDS “ complex dynamic system”

(iii) Analyze , then aggregate.

The science of the individual instructs scientist to analyze , then aggregate.
First , look for patterns within each individual. Then , look for ways to combine these individual patterns into collective insight.

There is on difficulty presented by individual first approach : it requires a great deal of data , far more data than averagarian approaches.

4) Talent is always jagged

Ranking individuals on a handful of metrics is a common practice for recruitment . ( hiring process) It is prevalent method of evaluating existing employees. ( during performance evaluation)

They are easy and intuitive to use and they carry the imprint of objectiveness and mathematical certitude.

In a harvard business review article , research suggest that a single score rating might not capture the true performance of an employee / the person rating that performance.

Google , Deloitte and Microsoft abandoned their rankings which rank talent on a single scale and make assumptions about their potential.

(i) the jaggedness principle
We cannot apply one dimensional thinking to understand something that is complex.

A quality is jagged if it meets two criteria  
1) It has multiple dimensions.
2) These dimensions must be weakly related to one another

(ii) the weakest link .
Weak correlations:
1 is a perfect correlation ( eg. height in cm / inches)
0 is no correlation (e.g. your height vs temperature on Saturn)

0.8+ is strong , 0.4 is weak.

The correlations between each of the dimensions of mental ability are not particularly strong. E.g. short term memory vs arithmetic.

If you sub divide intelligence even further and compare , short term memory for words to short term memory for images , these “ micro dimensions” also exhibit weak correlations

(iii) Overcoming talent blindness

Todd Carlisle , Google HR analyst , couldn’t find a single variable that mattered for most jobs at Google.

Managers have to focus on which factors you emphasize as most important in a hiring packet.

IGN changed its hiring strategy. Instead of using an identical one dimensional criteria like grades and standardized score like Google or Microsoft , which will lead to a small subset that’s more likely to sign with a big fish , they changed the way they thought about talent.

They had a 6 week Code Foo camp that completely ignored educational background and experience. They answered for questions which tests their abilities

The real difficulty is not finding new ways to distinguish talent - it is getting rid of the one dimensional blindness that prevented us from seeing it all along.

(iv) Tapping into your full potential

Recognising our own jaggedness is the first step to understanding our full potential and refusing to be caged in by arbitrary , average based pronouncements of who we are expected to be.

E.g. someone with poor working memory could swap to a visual thinking problem solving method.

When we become aware of our jaggedness , we are less likely to fall prey to one dimensional views of talent that limit what we are capable of.

5) Traits are a myth

Essentialist thinking is both a consequence and a cause of typing : if we know someone’s personality traits , we believe we can classify them as a particular type. In turn , we form conclusions about their personality and behavior

When it comes to predicting the behavior of individuals , traits actually do a poor job. Our personality and behavior are not explained by a collection of enduring traits.

The context principle

Trait based personality tests assume that we can be either extroverts or introverts… but not both.

However  e.g. A girl might be extroverted in the cafeteria , but not introverted on the playground.


Wednesday 22 November 2017

Book review of "Epic Measures" by Jeremy N. Smith

Picked up this book while reading another in Woodlands Regional Library. This book describes the Journey of Chris Murray. He began the Global Burden of Disease study .

http://www.healthdata.org/singapore

The guy in this video wrote the book and fleshed out the idea : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqEJmM27_pU

From chapter 15 : " You could solve humanity's most pressing problems once you recognised them. Tell them what their worst problems are, how to find the best solutions , and what progress they are making in improving their health It would help to turn information into evidence , evidence into action , and action into result. "

in a nutshell , WHO's standard of measure doesn't seem to be adequate for decision makers today. Various health agencies measures and administers aid. Over reporting occurs.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation serves as a academic body that provides an independent insight / measurement that covers not just things that kill you , but things that disables you too.

Key concept : if a stroke killed you at age seventy , you had lost ten years of potential life to early death.
 If pneumonia killed you on your first birthday , you had lost seventy nine years.
In terms of potential years of life lost , then the case of childhood pneumonia was almost eight times worse than stroke. simply counting deaths is not enough.

The second part of the sum concerned non fatal health problems e.g. hit by a car while crossing the street.
"if someone dies of cancer at age seventy -five , maybe the disease has taken five years of life," (years of life lost - YLLs) "if he dies of a car crash at twenty-five , that's fifty-five years. If he survives the car crash but has severe spinal injury , then dies at age sixty , that's both twenty years of life lost ( YLLs) and thirty five intervening years life with disability. (years lived with disability- YLDs )
Quantity of life lost (YLLs) + Quality of life lost ( YLDs) = Total years of healthy life lost ( DALY - Disability adjusted life years)

 How to live a longer and healthier life according to the Global Burden of Disease
1) Beat the reaper
Ideal diet , increasing physical activity , lowering body weight ( 21 - 23 BMI) , no smoking.
2) stay strong to the end
to prevent back and neck pain , take regular stretching breaks at work , exercise with a focus on core strength and consult guides to improve your posture.
3) change what risks you can.
what was good for the world's population in general might not be true for individual e.g. lactose intolerant shouldn't be drinking milk

Diet : 300 g of fruit (daily)
400 g of vegetables (daily)
125 g of whole grain (daily)
115 g of nut/seed/ peanut butter (weekly)
not more than 100 g of red meat (weekly)
0 processed meat (bacon , salami , sausages , deli style ham , turkey and pastrami) 0 sugar sweetened beverages poly unsaturated fatty acids from liquid vegetable oils
250mg of omega - 3 daily clean water / cooking fuels

4) support public action
5) get smart (even if you can't get rich)
educating women is an especially wise health investment on two fronts : first , it makes them better advocates and decision makers for themselves and their families during times of medical need; second , it leads women to delay the onset of motherhood and have fewer life risking pregnancies overall.
6) Be born in Japan - Or Switzerland , Or Singapore , Or ...
7) get risk in France - Italy or San Marino

Saturday 30 October 2010

Continued.

At the end of october : yea i got the kent ridge job , it involves teaching english !
Short term goals :
Work - Get a nice pair of work shoes , finish all the papers for holidays , finish the writeup / introduction / marketing material of myself.
Poker - finish reading in this order : easy game 2 by baluga whale , SSNLHE by ed miller , then whatever that is left unread in 2+2 forums.

Having migrated half of the funds from 888poker to pokerstars , i am comfortably playing @ 10 NL

888 poker progress:



PS's a bit up and down but will show when more hands.


Exercise : ran 3 x 3km already , one more 3km for the weekends , weight @ 82 , far from 72 KG but progressing.

Starcraft 2 ( diamond in 3v3 and 4v4) and TF2 is fun , but probably the time on it i will cut back by a lot as more time on it doesn't mean more fun , 1 or 2 sc2 match is enough excitement.

in the long run , will work on side ideas too !

can't wait for zoukout , December holidays !

Wednesday 25 August 2010

25 Aug 2010

I have decided my career path is to teach tuition and play poker(online).

short term goals : Tuition : interview with kent ridge @ tiong bahru
Poker : read an article of CoTW before every 2 hour session
9 tabling 5NL FR presently.
just bought micro version of poker tracker 3 , now adjusting and learning more about HUD layouts and how to use each stats , actively posting in poker strategy , poker kaki and lurking in 2+2 forums.

Milestones : 3K in income for tuition
reaching 30 BI for 10NL for poker ( thats 300USD) then taking a shot @ 10NL.

In terms of health , must run more ! try to drop back to 72 Kg and try not to snack too much.

i have reached platinium for all 1 v 1 - 4 v 4 for starcraft 2 and probably won't play that for a while.

Thursday 11 March 2010

Oh ya i got a blog ..

Renewed hopes , Return of chenghao !

Aims & Rules / Resolution

1) sleep before 12 everyday , i need the proper rest for my body to recover ! // Exception once a week during poker day.
to achieve sleep before 12 , i will stop all heavy / intensive activities by 11 and read a text intensive book , warm bath + milk

2) Milestones for weight
Currently standing @ 83KG
81KG (26 bmi) -> 78KG (25bmi) -> 75KG (24bmi)healthy weight -> 72KG (23bmi)Ideal weight

going to achieve this with milestones for fitness
daily except for mon and fri , 5basic exercise : 20 push up , 30 sit up , 6 pull ups , 20 squats 2.4km ( add 0.4 km per 2 weeks up to 5km)

3)milestones for income : get a job ! weekdays job , weekends tuition

4) milestones for poker

Online:
Bankroll milestones :
USD300 - entered NL25
USD600 - Drop back point to nl25m from NL50
USD1K - enter NL50


offline milestones :
0.2/0.4 and 0.5/1 till another 2k before re-entering 1/2

5)love : when 1) 2) and 3) is achieved , 5 should come naturally i think.

KIV secondary objectives : eg. rock climbing , scuba diving , a professional poker tournament , own biz etc.

Saturday 21 November 2009

How frequent do people blog ?

I realize that lately , the number of people around me who hasn't been regularly blogging has gone up. Why is that the case ? Is it due to hectic worklife ? Lack of discipline ? Shift of interest ?

That naturally leads me to the question , why do people Blog in the 1st place ?

1)As a biography to chronologies their own life what they eat , what they look like, what they do blah blah blah.

2)As a storefront to hawk their wares. Their dresses , their blah blah blah .

3)As a point of news , people deliver what they See , Hear , Touch , Taste , Feel about things around them . See accidents , Hear rumours , Touch whatever , Food they taste , things they feel .

4)To propagate their political agenda. Be it in national affairs , in games etc.

Why do they start a blog as opposed to alternatives ?
Probably bcos blogging is cheap to use , costing only the time it takes to blog.
Then there is twitter. But i will safe that for another week ( @leechenghao btw)

So why do i stop blogging for sometime ? cos maybe there is no new content to update ? There is no significant change other then growing perpetually fat. Partially it was due to lack of discipline , but largely the dearth of new ideas to entertain readers and log about my own boring life.